Portfolio Modeling

• Model the compounded uncertainty of a whole portfolio's forecast in one place, not project by project.
• Test how the mix, quantity, and staging of project starts by class change the odds of hitting your long-term portfolio goals.
• Understand pipeline survival and portfolio composition over time.
• Pressure-test a portfolio target with Monte Carlo, not a single deterministic plan.
• Use the model to inform project-investment and portfolio-management guidelines.

• Profile each project class as a staged growth curve (exploration, launch, scaling, mature) with uncertainty.
• Per-period staging matrix to schedule when and how many projects of each class start.
• Monte Carlo simulation of project survival and fall-out rates by stage, resulting in resource investment, revenue, net income, headcount, and cash flow over time.
• Survival (Sankey) and composition views, plus goal-attainment analysis.
• Support for both new and in-flight projects.

1. Set the goal. Enter your target value, horizon, discount rate, and granularity.
2. Profile the project classes. Define each class's staged growth curve and tune the assumptions; compare them side by side.
3. Stage them. Decide how many of each class start in each period.
4. Run and iterate. Run the Monte Carlo simulation, and adjust the mix, staging, or assumptions if you fall short of the goal.

What is Portfolio Modeling in Growth Forge?

It's a portfolio-level tool that aggregates staged project-class curves into one Monte Carlo forecast of survival, investment, revenue, cash flow, and goal attainment. It sits above individual projects and answers the portfolio question: given a mix and cadence of bets, how likely are we to hit our goal, and what will it take?

How do I model or forecast an innovation portfolio and set investment guidelines?

Profile each project class as a staged growth curve with uncertainty, set how many of each class you start per period, and run the simulation. It projects portfolio survival, investment, and returns over time, so you can tune the mix and cadence to hit a returns goal or fit an investment constraint, and use the result to set investment guidelines by class and stage.

Does it pull live data from each project's model?

No, you profile project classes with a generalized, representative growth curve, since you're modeling potential future projects that aren't defined yet. You can include in-flight projects, but the main purpose is modeling future portfolio investment and results.

What can I test?

Annual project quantity and class mix; investment guidelines and ranges by class and stage; goal attainment; how many bets survive the pipeline; and the resources and investment needed to achieve the goal.

How many simulation runs should I use?

A thousand or more for stable confidence bands.

What does it connect to?

It's the portfolio-level companion to Strategy Evaluation and the project-level financial tools (Expense Planning, Market Sizing); it informs portfolio governance rather than feeding back into individual project models.