Market Opportunity Sizing

• Know whether an opportunity is big enough to matter before committing time and budget to execution planning.
• Replace brittle, one-off spreadsheets with a structured, reusable revenue model you can easily modify, update, and defend as the strategy evolves.
• See a range of outcomes instead of a single false-precision number, Monte Carlo simulation shows the spread, not just a point estimate.
• Find the assumptions that actually move the forecast with built-in sensitivity analysis, so you know what to validate next.
• Change or modify product and sales models without building or editing complex formulas; the analytics and charts are built in and interactive.
• Compare segments and sales models on the same basis to decide where to focus.
• Produce a top-line forecast that flows straight into your full P&L, no re-keying or complex linking across worksheets or files.

• Define what you sell as production and sales models, with a library of common sales-model templates (subscription, usage/metered, licensing and royalty, physical product, services, and more).
• Flexible pricing and billing-term modeling, one-time, recurring, and hybrid structures with term and billing-frequency controls.
• Bind each offering to target segments from the Market Segmentation tool and compute a market funnel, total market, the portion you can serve, and your expected Share of Market (SOM), per segment.
• Model repurchase behavior, reach, and Share of Market assumptions explicitly so they can be quantified and validated.
• Monte Carlo simulation across every uncertain input, with revenue distributions and sensitivity analysis.
• Reusable conversion-logic chains and lookup tables for assumptions used across multiple market models (Advanced).
• Outputs feed the Unit Economics and Expense Planning tools to build a complete, time-phased P&L.

1. Start from your segments. Make sure your target segments are defined in the Market Segmentation tool, each with size and uncertainty.
2. Define what you produce or deliver as a product. Add a production model for each thing or unit of service you deliver.
3. Define how you sell it. For each offering, pick a sales-model template and set pricing and billing terms.
4. Build your market forecast models. For each sales model, connect target market segments and work through the guided steps: choose the offering, select segments, set how volume is counted, set repurchase behavior, then narrow from the total market (TAM) to the portion you can serve (SAM) to your expected Share of Market (SOM).
5. (Advanced) Reuse assumptions. Define conversion chains or lookup tables once and reuse them across multiple market models.
6. Run the forecast. Run a Monte Carlo simulation to see the revenue distribution and which assumptions matter most, and evaluate the integrated analytics.
7. Select which market forecast models to carry forward into Unit Economics and Expense Planning to complete your full P&L and discounted cash flow.
8. Evaluate the evidence for the product-class- and stage-specific evaluation criteria this tool influences, feeding your Strategy Evaluation.

What is the Market Sizing Tool in Growth Forge?

It's the tool for building a probabilistic revenue forecast for a new product or business. You connect what you sell and how you price it to your target segments, and it runs a market funnel, total market to serviceable market to your expected Share of Market, and layers Monte Carlo simulation on top so the result is a defensible range, not a single false-precision number. The forecast flows straight into your full P&L.

How do I size a market and forecast revenue for a brand-new product or business?

Define what you sell and how it's priced, bind it to the customer segments from Market Segmentation, then narrow from total market to the share you realistically expect to win. Because it's built for new, not-yet-proven opportunities, you work in assumption ranges rather than historical actuals, and the tool shows both the expected case and the full range of outcomes.

How can I forecast revenue when I have no sales history?

You enter each driver as a range (low / expected / high) instead of a single number, and Monte Carlo simulation combines them into a probability-weighted forecast. Built-in sensitivity analysis then ranks which assumptions move the forecast most, so you know exactly what to validate next.

Do I need a finance background or spreadsheet skills to use it?

No. Sales-model templates and a guided, step-by-step builder do the structural work; you supply the assumptions. It works a bit like guided tax software, think TurboTax for a new-business revenue model: it asks for the inputs it needs and handles the modeling behind the scenes. You can change product and sales models without writing or editing a single formula.

How is this different from building the model in a spreadsheet?

It's structured, reusable, and uncertainty-aware, with interactive analytics and charts built in, and it feeds your full P&L and discounted-cash-flow models directly. There are no fragile formulas or linked worksheets to maintain, and every assumption carries its evidence and range.

Can data be imported from or exported to spreadsheets?

Market Segmentation data can be imported from your own sources via a spreadsheet (template provided); all resulting analytic data and tables can be exported in CSV format; and visual charts can be copied directly to the clipboard for easy inclusion in presentations or other documents.

What does it connect to?

It draws segments from Market Segmentation and feeds Unit Economics and Expense Planning; it supersedes the Back-of-the-Envelope P&L once populated, and its assumptions contribute evidence to your Strategy Evaluation.