Strategy Choice Assumptions

Where it fits — and where to go deeper

Every strategy hypothesis rests on three kinds of assumption: choices you control, assertions about how other actors in your value network will behave, and uncertainties you carry as quantitative ranges. Strategy Choice Assumptions are the first: the target-market, differentiation, and implementation choices a team commits to and can revise. Keeping them distinct from assertions and uncertainties is what lets a team ask, in the spirit of “what would have to be true,” which beliefs a choice depends on and what evidence would confirm it. It also sets the evidence posture for each type: choices need a commitment decision, assertions need research and validation, and uncertainties need quantified ranges. Growth Forge® Software captures all three across the strategy modeling tools and rolls them into the Assumptions Manager. For the complete framework, see the Strategy Framework page at /supporting/strategy-framework. Related Terminology Index entries: Uncertainty Assumptions; Strategy Hypothesis; Evidence Level.

Sources

• A.G. Lafley & Roger L. Martin, Playing to Win (Harvard Business Review Press, 2013) — strategy as an integrated cascade of choices and the “what would have to be true?” test.
• Rita Gunther McGrath & Ian C. MacMillan, “Discovery-Driven Planning,” Harvard Business Review (Jul–Aug 1995) — making plan assumptions explicit and testable.
• BRI Associates, Strategy & Innovation Methodology — choice versus uncertainty assumptions in the Strategy Hypothesis Model (/supporting/strategy-framework).